Analysts Project Rupiah Could Weaken to Rp18,000 per US Dollar by May 2026
The exchange rate for the Rupiah is expected to potentially reach Rp18,000 per US Dollar by the end of May 2026. Currency and commodities observer Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that this weakening is triggered by a combination of external and domestic factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region and high domestic demand for Dollars.
Assuaibi assesses that tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are a primary factor burdening emerging market currencies, including the Rupiah. The fading prospects for a ceasefire between Iran and the US mean that the blockade on global energy trade routes persists, impacting the strengthening of the Dollar index and global crude oil prices.
On the other hand, the surge in global oil prices poses a serious threat to Indonesia, which still relies on energy imports. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently around 101 US Dollars per barrel, far above the state budget assumptions. This condition increases the need for energy subsidy funds and adds pressure on the Rupiah, worsened by rising Dollar demand during the season when companies distribute dividends to foreign investors.
https://www.gelora.co/2026/05/