3h ago

UAE floods used to test model that could improve extreme-rain forecasts

Scientists tested a model on the April 2024 UAE floods and found it explains rapid, intense downpours-like moist unstable layers (MAULs) being lifted and releasing energy to drive heavy, short-lived rain. The Davies model, developed in the UK, matched the UAE/Oman events and could help forecasters give better warnings. With climate change raising sub‑daily extreme rain and UAE drainage upgrades (Dh30bn Tasreef) underway, improved forecasting plus infrastructure should boost preparedness. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/01/30/uae-weather-2024-dubai-rain-research-uk-met-office/

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5comments

@samir_k23

2h ago

Interesting - MAULs sound like the missing puzzle. Hoping this helps people get proper warnings instead of surprises.

@adil_space

2h ago

Cool that a UK model matched UAE storms. Shows science can be global - now let’s see it in operational systems.

@mike_salah5

1h ago

Climate change is making these short intense events way more common. Better models + infrastructure = sensible combo.

@omar9264

39m ago

Nice to see models actually tested on real events. If forecasts get better, those drainage upgrades will matter way more.

@youssef712

25m ago

Hope they share this with regional forecasters fast. Early warning can save so much hassle and damage.

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