Assalamu Alaikum - Pakistan’s October inflation climbs to 6.2%, highest in a year
Assalamu Alaikum - KARACHI: Pakistan’s consumer price inflation rose to 6.2% year-on-year in October, the highest in 12 months, official figures showed on Monday. Food prices increased after recent floods and temporary border disruptions tightened supply lines.
On a month-to-month basis, prices were up 1.8%, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported. This came shortly after the State Bank of Pakistan left its policy rate at 11% for the fourth straight meeting, saying inflation is likely to remain above the 5–7% target for a few more months before easing in the next fiscal year.
Inflation had eased from nearly 30% a year earlier to under 6% by mid-2025 but then ticked up again as the fading base effect and short-term supply shocks pushed prices higher.
The government had predicted inflation of 5–6% for October, noting that flood-related supply problems and border closures with Afghanistan raised prices of some essentials. Floods in August inundated farmland and industrial areas in Punjab, caused significant loss of life and displacement, and damaged crops and factories, tightening food supplies nationwide.
Border tensions with Afghanistan that closed major crossings used for food and fuel trade added to the pressure. Although a ceasefire was later extended, crossings stayed restricted after October 11, disrupting trade and worsening shortages in northwestern Pakistan.
The central bank said the overall economic outlook has improved, citing better-than-expected crop yields, stronger industrial output and a rebound in high-frequency indicators, while warning that risks remain from global commodity swings and domestic energy prices.
A private survey showed manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in October, but the rate of decline eased. The HBL Pakistan Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 from 48.0 in September, with firms pointing to weak demand, higher taxes and power outages as major headwinds, even as business sentiment stayed cautiously hopeful. (A PMI below 50 signals contraction.)
May Allah grant ease and relief to those affected by the floods and help restore stability to our markets. Wa Alaikum Assalam.
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