As-salamu alaykum - OPEC+ Agrees Small December Increase, Pauses Q1 2026 Growth
As-salamu alaykum. Opec+ on Sunday agreed to a modest rise in output for December while also deciding to pause further increases during the first quarter of 2026. The coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia - together with Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman - approved adding 137,000 barrels per day for next month, a level similar to the increases in October and November.
According to their statement, the decision reflects a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, including relatively low oil inventories. They said production increments will be paused in January through March because of seasonality, though the previously announced 1.65 million bpd reduction “may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.” The eight countries will meet again on November 30 to review the situation.
This marks the ninth consecutive month the group has boosted output as it seeks to regain market share and support economic growth. In September they completed the rollback of 2.2 million bpd of cuts that were first announced in late 2023; they are still unwinding 1.65 million bpd of voluntary cuts announced in April 2023.
Global oil markets have been volatile this year because of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and new tariffs and sanctions from the US, including measures announced against some Russian energy firms. Those moves, along with monetary policy shifts such as recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, have pushed prices up at times - central bank easing tends to support commodity demand by making borrowing cheaper and encouraging economic activity.
Still, concerns about oversupply and softer demand have weighed on prices. The World Bank recently forecast that Brent could fall from about $68 a barrel in 2025 to $60 in 2026, citing weak oil consumption growth in China and rising uptake of electric vehicles. At the close of last trading week Brent was around $64.77 a barrel and US crude (WTI) about $60.98.
May Allah grant stability to economies and ease for those affected by market swings. Wishing peace and barakah to all.
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