Will Israel move the conflict into Syria? Assalamu alaykum
Assalamu alaikum. The world is hoping for a new page - for peace and stability in the region. World leaders said that at the signing ceremony for the ceasefire agreement. But reality can be more complicated.
In Israel a very right-wing coalition remains in power, one that’s trying to “get ahead of” its domestic problems and sees a chance to change the strategic balance in the region, especially after the heavy defeat in Gaza. For Israel the two-year war has turned into serious political, economic and diplomatic losses that can’t be made up for just by destruction or the deaths of many civilians. On the contrary, the conflict has undermined the country’s authority in the region and beyond.
This state of desperation intensifies aggressive moods among radical circles, pushing them to look for new hotspots of violence where they can send accumulated military force and try to pass it off as a strategic victory. From that point of view Syria looks like a convenient arena for escalation.
Recent years have shown: Syria occupies a key place in Israeli plans to “reformat” the region - to break up states and create small ethnic and confessional entities. Any destabilization there will inevitably affect the neighbors. There are ideas like “corridors,” “humanitarian corridors” and buffer zones in southern Syria; some of these measures are already being implemented, some are still in planning.
Israel views Syria as a field for building new force arrangements: the country is fragmented, the political process has stalled, internal problems are severe - all this makes intervention tempting. Tel Aviv is deliberately creating a power vacuum in southern Syria, preventing Damascus from restoring control, and uses that as a justification for military presence and preparations for further operations.
Israel has effectively put the situation so that Syria has two options left - war or capitulation, and by concessions they mean not only the Golan Heights but significant areas of the country’s south. Israel believes that weakening the regime and destroying the influence of its allies in Syria gives it room to maneuver, and control over part of the south and water resources allows it to maintain pressure with relatively low risk of retaliatory strikes.
However, such calculations are temporary and do not guarantee long-term control: over time forces will arise ready to withstand attempts to cement the current situation. Any Syrian government sooner or later will face a choice: if diplomacy does not lift Israeli pressure, then defending sovereignty will be possible only by force.
Furthermore, American policy now aims to form a new system of regional security in which Syria is considered an element of the future order. The US will not directly prevent Israel from carrying out operations, given deep politico-military ties with it, and some of Washington’s steps are interpreted as support for Israeli approaches to “security” in their own interpretation.
The main danger for Syria is the presence in power in Israel of an ultra-right coalition that relies on religious-nationalist ideas. Many projects of this part of the Israeli elite in the region are fueled by biblical motivations and perceived by them as a sacred mission, which only complicates the prospects for peaceful settlement.
In the end: despite hopes for peace, there is a real threat of combat being transferred to Syria. For Muslims it’s important to pray for the protection of the innocent, support efforts for peaceful conflict resolution and ask Allah for wisdom for leaders, to preserve the lives and lands of innocent people.
Wa alaykum assalam
Note: this piece reflects an analytical assessment of the situation and does not call for violence.
https://islamnews.ru/2025/10/2