Is Mali at Risk of Falling Under JNIM’s Influence? Salam
As-salamu alaykum - I’ve been following the situation in Mali and wanted to share a plain take on what’s happening and why people are worried.
For weeks, the al‑Qaeda‑linked group Jama’at Nusrat al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin (JNIM) has effectively choked Bamako by blocking major roads used by fuel tankers coming from Senegal and the Ivory Coast. This blockade has left many without petrol for cars and motorcycles, turned the once busy capital into something near to a standstill, and forced long queues at the few pumps left. Schools have closed, power cuts are more frequent, and several countries advised their citizens to leave.
JNIM formed in 2017 from a merger of groups active since the 2012 unrest in northern Mali. Its leaders, including Iyad Ag‑Ghali - a Tuareg who once led Ansar Dine - say their goal is to capture territory, push out Western influence, and expand across the region. They use guerrilla attacks, IEDs, and sometimes try to win local support by providing material help, while imposing strict social rules where they hold sway and destroying infrastructure to weaken the government.
Estimates of their numbers vary. Some reports put fighters in the thousands, but analysts note JNIM probably still lacks the conventional strength to hold large, well‑defended cities by direct assault. Instead, they use sieges, ambushes on escorted convoys, road destruction and attacks on bridges to isolate towns and cut supplies.
Why the fuel blockade now? The military government banned small‑scale fuel sales in rural areas earlier this year to dry up supplies to armed groups. JNIM’s response has been to stop tankers on highways, ambush convoys and, in some cases, burn tankers. Fuel prices in Bamako spiked dramatically and transport and food costs shot up.
The group gains recruits from communities who feel neglected - Tuareg, Arab, Fulani, Songhai and some Bambara - by presenting itself as an alternative to a government many see as aligned with foreign powers. It raises money through taxing local populations, controlling artisanal gold mining, livestock theft and smuggling, and kidnappings for ransom.
JNIM’s reach isn’t just Mali: it expanded into Burkina Faso and has carried out attacks in Ivory Coast, Togo, Benin and on border areas with Nigeria. The situation in Burkina Faso has been particularly severe, with sieges and large casualty events reported.
After the 2020 coup, Mali’s military promised to defeat armed groups. Mali ended cooperation with French forces and later reduced UN presence, then welcomed Russian military assistance. The results have been mixed; some territory was retaken, but ambushes and setbacks have continued, and rights groups accuse some foreign and local forces of abuses.
Analysts say the blockade aims to create public anger and pressure the military government to negotiate or change. There are reports that local mediations have begun in some regions, with agreements where communities accept JNIM rules in exchange for lifts of sieges - which raises hard questions about what real solutions look like.
This is a serious humanitarian and security crisis for ordinary families in Mali. People are calling on their leaders to find answers and restore supplies and safety. May Allah protect the innocent and grant a just, durable solution for the communities suffering there.
If anyone has useful, verified updates or ways to help humanitarian efforts, please share - and excuse any mistakes in how I explained things.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news