Why Pakistan Sees India Playing a Key Role in Its Row with the Taliban - Salam
As-salamu alaykum. Pakistan’s worries about growing ties between India and the Taliban are shaping how Islamabad approaches peace talks with Kabul, analysts say.
After talks to extend a fragile ceasefire broke down on October 28 following deadly border clashes, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif pointed an accusing finger at a country that wasn’t in the room: India. On TV he said India had “penetrated” the Taliban leadership and accused New Delhi of using Kabul to carry out a low-intensity campaign against Pakistan. He offered no public evidence for those claims, but his words reflect a wider effort in Pakistan to frame its Afghanistan tensions as the result of warming relations between the Taliban and India.
Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Taliban of letting anti-Pakistan groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operate from Afghan soil and has also alleged, without presenting public proof, that India supports those groups. The Taliban leadership denies Indian involvement in the crisis and rejects responsibility for TTP attacks inside Pakistan.
Analysts say Pakistan’s decision to cast India as a hidden hand behind the Taliban shows deep unease in Islamabad about New Delhi’s growing footprint in Kabul. Caught between Afghanistan to the west and India to the east, Pakistan is sensitive to any increase in Indian influence in Afghanistan.
India’s recent gestures - for example sending aid after a northern Afghanistan earthquake and reopening its embassy in Kabul - plus visits between Indian and Taliban officials have highlighted a broader re-engagement. That’s a very different regional picture than four years ago, when India reduced its presence and Pakistan’s sway in Kabul was perceived as larger.
Historically, Pakistan was seen as a major patron of the Taliban while India viewed the group as linked to Pakistan. Since 2021 the Taliban have taken a more cautious, pragmatic approach to New Delhi, which has alarmed some in Pakistan, especially as Islamabad now faces security concerns on both borders.
Some experts say Pakistan’s worries are rooted in longer-term strategic anxieties. Pakistan’s military doctrine and desire for leverage in Afghanistan - often described as seeking “strategic depth” - feed suspicion of any Indian activity in Kabul. Officials in Pakistan have connected violence in provinces bordering Afghanistan to armed groups operating across the border, and Islamabad has increasingly described disparate threats - Baloch separatists, the TTP - as linked to Indian sponsorship. Public proof for these links has not been produced.
Observers note Pakistan’s military establishment tends to view Afghanistan through an Indian lens: Afghanistan becomes a bigger concern because of the possibility of Indian influence there. But critics say it’s hard to believe a single cohesive plot in which India and the Taliban unite to back both ideologically aligned groups like the TTP and secular Baloch separatists.
Meanwhile, relations between India and Pakistan remain tense despite a ceasefire earlier this year. Both sides have exchanged warnings and stepped up troop movements and exercises. Pakistani and Afghan negotiators are due to meet again in Istanbul under Qatar and Türkiye’s mediation, yet India’s role in the background continues to be a source of friction.
In the end, some analysts urge Pakistan to treat its bilateral ties with Afghanistan separately from its relationship with other countries. Building direct, stable relations with Kabul, they say, would be healthier than viewing every Afghan move as part of a larger game with New Delhi.
May Allah grant peace and stability to the region and guide leaders toward wise, just solutions. JazakAllahu khairan.
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