War or not? Signs point away from a big escalation in Lebanon, but all options remain possible
As-salamu alaykum. People in Lebanon are talking nervously about whether a larger military escalation might happen after the Pope’s visit, with some grim jokes saying he’d give a final blessing before Israel steps up attacks. In recent weeks strikes in southern Lebanon and sharper Israeli rhetoric have made many Lebanese fear a return to wider fighting, nearly a year after a fragile ceasefire that ended 13 months of clashes between Israel and Hezbollah.
Israel accuses Hezbollah of rearming and has warned it could intensify operations. There were wide strikes shortly after evacuation notices for several southern villages - a reminder of tactics used during the open fighting months ago. Still, diplomats, analysts and sources close to Hezbollah say they don’t expect a full-scale aerial campaign right away, despite the bluster.
Their view is that Israel has largely benefited from the current status quo: a ceasefire that stopped Hezbollah’s attacks while Israel has continued strikes with limited international pushback. The UN peacekeepers in the south have logged many ceasefire violations, including air strikes and incursions, which have kept tens of thousands from returning to border towns. Civilians have paid a heavy price: the UN says at least 111 people were killed by shelling during the ceasefire period.
Former Lebanese coordinator with UNIFIL, Gen. Mounir Shehadeh, says Israel doesn’t need a dramatic escalation to get its way - it already acts with near freedom to strike where it wants. He and others see recent strikes as pressure by fire to force Lebanon to meet Israeli demands, mainly rapid disarmament of Hezbollah.
Since September, Lebanon has been carrying out an army plan to remove armed infrastructure in the south, without a fixed deadline. The Lebanese army says much of Hezbollah’s military setup south of the Litani has been removed, but Israel says the pace is too slow. Hezbollah insists it has a legitimate right to resist Israel and has not surrendered its weapons, though it hasn’t fired since the ceasefire and hasn’t blocked the army’s work in the south.
Observers worry Israel could use limited escalations - reaching areas like the Dahiyeh in Beirut’s south or striking deeper into Lebanon - to speed up political pressure without launching a full campaign. Some diplomats say Israel can maintain the ceasefire’s benefits (no attacks from Lebanese soil) while keeping the option of pre-emptive strikes.
There’s also concern that Israel’s hardline approach could weaken Lebanon’s new leadership, which has international support for reform. Lebanese officials have signalled a need for dialogue with Israel, even as they complain that openness to negotiation seems to invite more aggression.
Some fast-spreading talk of an imminent full-scale war may come from internal political rivals who want Hezbollah disarmed. At the same time, strong diplomatic efforts aim to prevent a wider conflict: since the Gaza ceasefire momentum has generally moved toward de-escalation, diplomats say. Hezbollah sources also judge the wider regional picture and mediator pressure make a major new war unlikely for now, and they believe the US would be unlikely to green-light a broad invasion.
Still, no one rules out the possibility completely. With the current Israeli government, some diplomats warn, sudden moves are always possible and hard to predict. For now, most parties seem to favour negotiation and avoiding a return to full-scale war, but the situation remains fragile and tense.
May Allah protect the innocent and bring a just and peaceful resolution for the people of Lebanon and the wider region. Wa alaykum as-salam.
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