The ebb and flow of Saudi Arabia’s US Treasury approach - As-salamu alaykum
As-salamu alaykum. I came across a piece about how Saudi Arabia manages its US Treasury holdings and thought I’d share a simple take that fits a Muslim perspective.
Saudi Arabia’s US Treasury holdings aren’t just numbers on a report - they reflect the Kingdom’s broader financial strategy, its confidence in the global system, and how it supports economic diversification under Vision 2030. Experts say the approach is disciplined and ordered.
Qaiser Noor, an executive director and board member at several firms, explained that Saudi allocations to US Treasuries are mainly set to protect the riyal’s peg to the dollar and to keep enough liquid dollars for external obligations. The priority order is safety first, then liquidity, then return, so Treasuries form a liquid core while duration is tweaked depending on market conditions. Oil income cycles, fiscal needs, and expected FX requirements all feed into decisions - the focus being capital preservation and cushioning balance-of-payments shocks while also seeking reasonable yield.
Nasser Saidi, an economist and adviser, echoed that SAMA (the Saudi central bank) drives much of this, aiming for currency stability and holding dollars to maintain the peg and liquidity. Treasuries help meet international payments, finance imports, service external debt, and provide a steady, low-risk income stream - a useful buffer against oil revenue swings.
Holdings have moved around in the past year: rising from about $142.7bn in July 2024 to a peak, then falling to lows around $126bn–$127bn in early 2025 before recovering. These shifts are mostly active reserve management rather than panic - inflows from oil can be parked in ultra-safe dollar paper, while declines can reflect domestic spending needs, transfers to other public entities, or rotations across the dollar curve.
Drivers behind changes include SAMA taking advantage of higher US rates, transfers to the Public Investment Fund (PIF), Aramco dividend flows, and portfolio rebalancing toward higher-yield assets when appropriate. SAMA balances acting as a traditional central bank with managing reserves to support funding needs tied to Vision 2030.
Reserve managers use a layered strategy: a highly liquid dollar layer (Treasuries and bills) sits alongside a return-seeking layer with measured duration, plus selected high-grade supranationals or agency papers and hedged non-dollar assets. The priority remains that buffers must work in crises; extra yield is pursued only when it doesn’t compromise reserve usability.
The relationship between SAMA and the PIF is key: SAMA keeps conservative policies for currency and financial stability, while the PIF takes more aggressive, longer-term positions to diversify the economy away from oil into new sectors and technologies. There have been capital transfers between them for strategic investments.
Looking forward, Treasuries should remain central to SAMA because of the dollar peg, but expect more diversification in non-reserve investments via the PIF - private equity, infrastructure, renewables, AI, data centers, and tech. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to abandon the dollar fully, even as trade links with China and other partners may increase holdings in other currencies and gold. There may also be a move toward a digital riyal for cross-border use in the future.
In short: Wa alhamdulillah, Saudi reserve policy appears cautious and pragmatic - keeping safety and liquidity first while gradually pursuing diversification to support long-term goals.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/