Tense ties but a continued presence: Russia's foothold in Syria and what that means
Assalamu alaykum. A Syrian town that once bustled around a strategic Russian airbase now feels like a pale version of itself, yet it remains important in regional politics. Hmeimim, largely an Alawite town, has come to represent how the new transitional government is solidifying control in areas that were once under Bashar Al Assad.
Shops whose signs still show Arabic and Cyrillic used to stay open late for Russian visitors; now most close by late afternoon. Russian patrols are no longer allowed to leave the base without coordinating with Syria’s new authorities, and soldiers off duty don’t move freely in town anymore.
Bullet holes and burn marks are visible everywhere after the coastal massacres in March that forced half the town to flee. Remaining residents, watched by government checkpoints and patrols, are suspicious of newcomers. One shopkeeper, who asked not to be named for safety, said it used to be full of life. After the violence many left for Russia or Lebanon; those who stayed are afraid to go out after dusk. The local economy, once supported by Russian soldiers, is in tatters.
The small town sits at the heart of a difficult question: Russia’s continuing military presence in Syria. Russia still runs three bases in the country, and it wants to keep them because of Syria’s strategic position. Before the fall of the Assad regime, Moscow treated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist group and had backed Assad during the civil war with years of air strikes. But after Assad’s ousting, both sides have shown pragmatism, holding talks that many analysts call realpolitik. Back-channel negotiations even led to a meeting in Moscow between Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara and Vladimir Putin this month.
Shortly after Assad’s fall, reporters were allowed limited access to Hmeimim and spoke with HTS and military figures. Inside the base, a Russian representative said they wanted “friendly relations” with what would soon be a legitimate government. An HTS source said the group wanted to seek Assad’s extradition. Some of those claims have since moved forward in one way or another.
Experts say the talks are largely transactional. Russia needs to deal with the new Syrian authorities if it wants to keep its military foothold, and economic interests - energy, phosphates and other deals - matter alongside military access. Observers note the fall of Assad was not the total strategic defeat for Russia that some predicted.
Negotiations remain fragile, and it’s unclear what compromises each side will accept. Authorities have tightened control around Hmeimim, repainted its entrance to match the country’s new identity and limited media access. Damascus appears to hope a Russian presence might deter Israeli strikes, though Israel has said it mistrusts Syria’s new hardline Islamist leaders and has continued strikes across Syria.
Some Syrians are furious at the idea of dealing with Russia, blaming its intervention for heavy bombardment and destruction during the war. Others, especially minorities who sought refuge near the base during the massacres, say Russia has offered protection and they fear losing that security. As one Alawite man who surrendered his weapons under a reconciliation deal put it, they might make hard compromises just to stay safe.
In short, Syria’s foreign policy is shifting into a more pragmatic, transactional mode as the new authorities try to balance relations with Russia, and reach out to other powers too. What each side gives and takes to protect its interests - military bases, economic influence, and regional deterrence - will shape the country’s future.
Wa alhamdulillah.
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