Still getting hit despite a ceasefire - lessons from Lebanon for Gaza, assalamu alaikum
Assalamu alaikum - As a fragile ceasefire started in Gaza this month, Israel kept striking southern Lebanon, even though it’s been nearly a year since a truce there. An October strike on a construction equipment yard killed a Syrian passerby, wounded seven people including two women, and destroyed millions of dollars of bulldozers and excavators. Actions like that would be rare in most countries at peace, but near-daily Israeli attacks have become normal in Lebanon, despite a US-brokered truce meant to stop large-scale fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
Some observers worry Gaza might follow a similar path: a formal ceasefire that still allows lower-intensity strikes. On Sunday Israel said it struck Gaza after claiming Hamas fired on its troops - the first big test of the US-backed truce. Mona Yacoubian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies described Lebanon’s situation as more of a “lessfire” than a true ceasefire, saying it could serve as a model that lets Israeli forces hit targets they consider threats without a full return to open war.
The Lebanon truce signed Nov. 27, 2024, asked Lebanon to prevent armed groups from attacking Israel and asked Israel to stop “offensive” operations in Lebanon, while still allowing both sides to act in “self-defense.” A monitoring committee including the US, France, Israel, Lebanon and UNIFIL can raise alleged breaches, but the deal is vague on how to enforce it. Israel says its strikes target Hezbollah fighters, facilities and weapons to stop the group from rebuilding. Lebanese officials say the attacks hinder efforts to disarm Hezbollah, give the group an excuse to keep arms, and often harm civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Lebanon’s health ministry says more than 270 people have been killed and about 850 wounded by Israeli actions since the ceasefire; the UN human rights office verified at least 107 civilian deaths as of Oct. 9. UNIFIL reported hundreds of projectiles and many Israeli airstrikes into Lebanon since the ceasefire, while detecting far fewer launches from Lebanon toward Israel.
There are clashing versions of events. After the Oct. 11 strikes in Msayleh, Israel said it hit engineering gear meant to rebuild “terrorist infrastructure.” The equipment owner and Lebanese officials disputed that, saying people from all communities come to buy from the yard. Lebanese leaders called the strikes aggression that hits civilian facilities and slows reconstruction. Lebanon took its complaint to the UN Security Council. Other strikes hit a cement factory and a quarry that Israel said Hezbollah would use. One earlier strike killed a car salesman and three of his children and wounded others - a loss that drew outrage because children were among the dead.
Even when Israel names a Hezbollah target, whether the strike was militarily necessary is argued. An Israeli drone strike recently killed a Hezbollah member who had been blinded previously, and Hezbollah said he had not been militarily active after losing his sight.
Hezbollah grew from resistance to occupation in 1982 into a powerful armed group; for years a tense deterrence kept both sides mostly from striking across the border. That balance unraveled after the recent war. Some analysts say Hezbollah’s deterrence was badly weakened, while Hezbollah officials say daily Israeli strikes are unacceptable and are pressing Lebanon’s government to act politically and diplomatically - though they haven’t reengaged in widespread fighting yet.
Many experts don’t expect the Lebanon pattern to change soon unless there’s a serious diplomatic breakthrough. For Gaza, the presence and active roles of mediators like Qatar, Egypt and Türkiye could make some difference, but the risk remains that a formal ceasefire may include ongoing lower-level strikes rather than a full stop to hostilities.
May Allah protect innocent civilians on all sides and guide leaders to just and lasting peace.
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