Peace in Gaza Brings Hope, but Regional Struggles Continue
As-salamu alaykum, brothers and sisters. There is a ceasefire in Gaza now, which is a relief, but it doesn’t guarantee that the tensions with Israel in Lebanon and other nearby areas will stop. Experts and officials have said that what happens next depends a lot on the interests of certain powers and how the situation evolves.
Israel’s military announced that they are following the ceasefire in Gaza starting from noon local time. This came after the US President announced that Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire. But many are wondering what this means for a region that has been through so much since October 7th, 2023.
In Lebanon, Israel is still targeting what it calls Hezbollah spots, even though a ceasefire was agreed on almost a year ago. Syria has also faced many air strikes despite changes in its government. Iran and Israel had a 12-day conflict in June as well.
Some analysts say that the Gaza ceasefire might not bring peace to the wider area because the plans of leaders can change and affect the situation. They expect pressure will continue on groups like Hezbollah to give up their weapons, especially if similar pressure is put on Hamas.
Israel and the US have been urging Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, warning of consequences if they don’t. Hezbollah resists this strongly, especially with Israeli troops still in south Lebanon and frequent bombings.
The network of groups supporting resistance, including Hamas and Hezbollah, has weakened over recent years, but it's unclear if Israel will stop or try to push further. Some signs suggest that strong demands might be made for Hamas to disarm, although they haven’t agreed to this yet.
Hezbollah leaders say the ceasefire in Gaza isn’t the end of the conflict. They believe there is a wider plan by Israel expanding across the region, with aggressive goals against Lebanon and Syria. Since Syria’s government changed, Israel has taken control of parts of southern Syria and carried out many air strikes, even as the new government tries to avoid direct conflict.
Hezbollah expects the conflict to continue at varying levels. They think Israel’s leaders might use war to distract from their own problems. However, a full war in Lebanon isn’t expected, just ongoing tensions and escalations depending on Israel’s decisions.
The situation with Israel’s presence in Syria remains unsolved. Some see this as an attempt to create a buffer zone and a bargaining point for future talks. Others say Israel’s actions are meant to stir up division in Syria, which could affect the whole region.
The question of Israel’s occupation in southern Syria may be part of future agreements between Israel and Syria. Washington encourages countries nearby to normalize relations with Israel, which some see as contradictory given ongoing hostilities.
Many believe the biggest risk for escalation lies with Iran. Israel accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons and attacked in June. Some experts think Israel’s main focus now is preparing for a possible war with Iran, while continuing pressure on Lebanon but avoiding a full ground war there.
Hezbollah also expects that Iran will be the next focus of conflict. They feel Israel may have failed to reach its goals in its recent attacks on Iran and that new sanctions might create new opportunities for Iran.
Whether tensions with Iran will rise depends on whether the US sees benefit in pushing harder over Iran’s nuclear program. The future remains uncertain.
May Allah protect the region and guide all parties towards peace and justice. Ameen.
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