Is Pakistan trying to set new red lines with the Afghan Taliban?
As-salamu alaykum - short take: ties that once seemed to be improving between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban have slid back into dangerous territory, and Pakistan may be signalling a tougher new approach.
Backstory: Pakistan’s foreign minister visited Kabul in April and met Taliban officials, and follow-up talks in May and August (with China’s help) gave the impression of a reset. But a deadly weekend of border clashes changed that. Pakistan says it killed more than 200 fighters; the Taliban says 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed. Those opposing casualty claims underline how fragile the earlier détente was.
Islamabad says militant groups are using Afghan soil to launch attacks into Pakistan, and it points fingers at the Taliban for offering sanctuary. The Taliban denies this. Then Kabul was rocked by explosions and gunfire one night; Pakistan didn’t openly claim responsibility but the Taliban accused Pakistan and vowed retaliation.
Clashes continued: Pakistan later acknowledged at least 23 soldiers killed and 29 wounded, and said its forces took control of over 21 positions inside Afghan territory. Afghanistan hasn’t confirmed Taliban losses. The fighting flared again near tribal district Kurram, with Pakistani sources saying Afghan fighters attacked “unprovoked” and that several Afghan tanks were destroyed. An Afghan government spokesperson said Pakistani forces used light and heavy weapons, reporting more than a dozen civilians killed and over 100 injured, and that Afghan forces were forced to respond.
Some observers see parallels with the Pakistan–India fallout earlier this year, after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir and then carried out strikes inside Pakistan in May. Now, analysts say Pakistan appears to be setting a “new normal” with the Taliban - warning that attacks on Pakistani soil could prompt strikes inside Afghanistan. That’s similar in tone to what India did in April, which Pakistan protested at the time.
The biggest fear for Islamabad is the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP, born around 2007 during the so-called “war on terror,” has long fought Pakistani forces, and Pakistan accuses Kabul of allowing the TTP and other groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army and ISKP to operate from Afghanistan. The TTP is separate from the Afghan Taliban but shares similar ideology. A recent ACLED report said TTP attacks surged - hundreds of incidents in the past year and rising into 2025.
Regional powers such as China, Iran and Russia have urged the Taliban to act against these groups, a message repeated at the Moscow-format talks in early October, which Afghanistan attended.
Analysts and former diplomats think diplomacy will continue - likely led by countries with influence on both sides, like Gulf states or China - but they warn tensions may keep simmering and could flare up again. Abdul Basit, a scholar based in Singapore, says another round of talks in a third country is possible but that hostilities can’t be ruled out. Former Pakistani envoy Seema Ilahi Baloch adds that both countries must realise these clashes hurt regional stability and that China could help mediate.
Inside Pakistan there’s frustration. A local think tank estimated security personnel deaths in the first three quarters of this year at over 2,400, putting this year on track to be the deadliest in a decade. Some in the Pakistani establishment feel patience with Afghanistan has run out.
Observers also note an important military imbalance: Pakistan has a professional army with air power and more advanced equipment, while the Taliban fighters, for all their battlefield experience, lack the same hardware and training. That limits how the Taliban could respond to sustained Pakistani strikes.
After the clashes Islamabad’s foreign ministry for the first time questioned the Taliban’s legitimacy and urged “concrete and verifiable actions” against terrorist elements and a more inclusive Afghan government. Some see that as merely pushing for elections; others warn it could hint Pakistan might back anti-Taliban groups if security concerns are ignored.
Adding to the tensions, the Taliban foreign minister travelled to New Delhi in October - the first senior Taliban visit since they returned to power - and met Indian officials. Pakistan views growing Kabul–New Delhi ties with suspicion and accuses India of backing groups that cause trouble in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces; India rejects those charges.
Analysts ask why Pakistan neither fully claimed nor denied reported strikes in Afghanistan. Critics say that could hurt Pakistan’s credibility if it later points to Afghanistan as the source of attacks but doesn’t take responsibility for its own countermeasures.
Still, many think Pakistan’s recent strikes were meant to send a clear message: Islamabad will use force if it believes Kabul is colluding with groups that undermine Pakistani security. But most also agree on this limit - no country can fight a two-front war, and costs would be high.
The big outstanding question, as some experts put it, is what Pakistan wants to achieve: is the goal to pressure the Taliban into action against the TTP, or will force push the Taliban closer to militants? Time will tell.
May Allah protect the innocent and guide leaders toward a peaceful, just solution.
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