Gulf air fares could ease if regional tensions calm - a simple take
Assalamu alaikum - quick summary: air ticket prices across the Middle East may come down if the geopolitical situation gets steadier, because airlines would face fewer disruptions, could reopen direct routes and more carriers might compete on popular services.
Right now, air fares in the region were about 15% higher in the first half of this year compared with the same pre‑Covid period in 2019. ACI (the global airports trade body) says higher inflation and less airline competition on domestic and short routes helped push prices up. That’s a change from earlier years when fares were falling on average.
Airport fees don’t seem to be the main reason. ACI finds airport charges and turnaround costs have generally risen less than inflation, and even where they’ve eased a bit, fares kept going up.
Among Gulf states, the UAE saw the biggest jump - about 23% higher fares in H1 2025 versus H1 2019. Bahrain rose 13%, Saudi Arabia 9%, Oman 7% and Jordan 3% in the same comparison.
Why could fares fall? If regional tensions ease, airlines would have fewer operational problems, fewer diversions and could restart many direct routings. That reduces costs and improves efficiency. With more open airspace and better flight planning, some carriers might find it viable to serve routes they’d avoided, which would boost competition and tend to push fares down - insha'Allah.
An end to conflict, together with ongoing growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would be good news for both airlines and travellers. It should help connectivity and support growth in travel across the region.
There has been some recent movement on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas under a peace plan put forward by US President Donald Trump; reports said a pause in fighting and releases were part of that arrangement. The deal is said to have paused a conflict that lasted two years and resulted in very heavy Palestinian casualties, according to the figures quoted in reports.
During the height of the tensions, airlines faced lots of disruptions - diverted flights, suspended routes and higher operating costs - which pushed fares up.
Travel and tourism are important for many Middle Eastern economies for hard currency and jobs. ACI expects passenger numbers in the region to rise - projected total traffic of about 473 million in 2025, up from 440 million the year before, showing the region’s role as both a destination and a global connecting hub.
Iata reported Middle Eastern airlines saw an 8.2% year‑on‑year rise in passenger demand in August, with capacity up 6.9% and a load factor around 83.9%. Globally, passenger demand was up 4.6% from August 2024 and planes were fuller than before during the summer peak.
Iata and others also warn about continued supply chain problems and delayed aircraft deliveries. The industry faces extra costs - older planes burn more fuel, maintenance bills rise, engine leasing costs go up and airlines are holding more spare parts. A joint report estimated supply chain disruption could cost airlines over $11 billion in 2025.
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Personal profile (casual):
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How I spend spare time: playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them - I love animals.
Inspiration: my father. He’s worked very hard to provide for us.
Favourite book: Attitude, Emotions and the Psychology of Cats by Dr. Nicholas Dodman
Favourite film: 101 Dalmatians - it reminds me of childhood and started my love of dogs.
Word of advice: be patient and stay positive; good things will come and it helps you keep loving what you do.
Record: Total fights: 32 Wins: 28 Wins by KO: 26 Losses: 4
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Music I listen to (mix of artists): Coldplay, Foals, Bring Me The Horizon, D‑Block Europe, Bastille, Mabel, Freya Ridings, FKA Twigs, Charli XCX, Mahalia, Harry Styles, Lewis Capaldi, Dave, Michael Kiwanuka, Stormzy, Aitch, Sam Fender, Ed Sheeran, Justin Bieber and others. Some favourite tracks: “I Don’t Care”, “Don’t Call Me Up”, “Giant”, “Location”, “Nothing Breaks Like A Heart”, “Someone You Loved”, “Just You and I”, “Dancing with a Stranger”, “Vossi Bop”.
Also enjoy artists like Ariana Grande, Billie Eilish, Camila Cabello, Lana Del Rey, Lizzo, Bruce Springsteen, Burna Boy, Tyler, The Creator, Dermot Kennedy, Post Malone.
Albums I like: Stormzy - Heavy is the Head; Michael Kiwanuka - Kiwanuka; Lewis Capaldi - Divinely Uninspired to a Hellish Extent; Dave - Psychodrama; Harry Styles - Fine Line.
Books and fiction: Like a Fading Shadow by Antonio Muñoz Molina (translated by Camilo A. Ramirez) - Tuskar Rock Press.
Film notes: Starring Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah. Director: Majid Al Ansari. Rating I’d give: 4/5.
Business note (UAE SMEs): small and medium enterprise categories depend on staff numbers, turnover and sector. For example, in services a small company often has 6–50 employees with turnover above Dh2m up to Dh20m; manufacturing small firms might be 10–100 staff with turnover Dh3m–Dh50m. Medium size rules vary by sector, with staff ranges and turnover caps set differently for trading, manufacturing and services.
Opinion pieces and reads I noticed: pieces on US unity, differences between rare events and obvious risks, and questions about rushed science and research.
A quick warning about pensions and scams (from financial commentary): be careful if your pension is put into offshore insurance with big upfront commission; moved into structured notes; sold funds with high initial charges; charged 1% advisory fees while hidden commissions exist; or total annual costs are 2%+ - those are signs you might have been mis‑sold.
Sports and achievements: examples of club honours include titles like La Liga and Champions League wins in certain years for big clubs.
Tech/specs snapshot (example): price as tested Dh85,900, engine 937cc, six‑speed gearbox, 110hp @ 9,000rpm, 93Nm @ 6,500rpm, combined fuel 5.9L/100km.
May Allah make things easier and bring peace to the region, and may travel become more affordable for everyone, insha'Allah.
https://www.thenationalnews.co