New History! After Beating Qatar-Thailand, Here's Indonesia's Scenario to AVC Cup 2026 Semifinals
The Indonesian men's national volleyball team has opened up a chance for the AVC Men’s Volleyball Nation Cup 2026 semifinals after surprising wins over Qatar and Thailand. As of Tuesday (6/24), Thailand leads Pool B with six points from four matches, while Indonesia sits in second place with four points from three games. The top two teams in the group advance to the semifinals.
There are three decisive matches left: South Korea vs Oman (Thursday, 6/25), Qatar vs South Korea (Friday, 6/26), and Oman vs Indonesia (Friday, 6/26). The duel against Oman is the most crucial for Riedel Toiran's squad. On paper, Indonesia (ranked 50th in the world) is favored over Oman (ranked 78th), but Oman has proven to be a dark horse after beating Qatar 3-2.
If Indonesia beats Oman, the chance of making the semifinals is huge. A 3-0 or 3-1 win would collect seven points and open up a chance for the group title, especially if South Korea beats Qatar. A 3-2 win adds two points to make six, still potentially safe though depending on set/point ratio. Losing to Oman would make things complicated and the chance for top two would drop drastically.
Indonesia's chance for a top-two finish is about 60–70% if they can beat Oman. The chance for group champion is about 20–30%, depending on the Qatar vs South Korea result and ratio calculations. A win over Oman could be the golden ticket to the top four.
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