S&P Global Warns of Southeast Asian Debt Rating Risks, Indonesia Most Vulnerable
The international credit rating agency, S&P Global Ratings, has warned of significant pressure on the debt ratings of Southeast Asian countries if the energy crisis caused by the Middle East conflict continues. In its report cited on Thursday, April 16, 2026, S&P assessed Indonesia's sovereign rating as the most vulnerable in the region if energy market disruptions persist.
According to S&P, three main burdens threaten Indonesia: (1) The swelling subsidy burden due to soaring energy prices, (2) Widening current account deficit due to expensive oil imports, and (3) The potential for increased borrowing costs if aggressive inflation triggers interest rate hikes.
Neighboring countries show varying resilience. Malaysia is seen as the most stable due to its deep capital markets and solid economic growth. Thailand is assessed as having strong monetary policy and external positions, while Vietnam has adequate buffers but needs to be wary of liquidity risks. S&P assumes the intensity of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will subside this month, but the impact on energy infrastructure is expected to continue, with Brent crude oil prices holding at an average of 85 US dollars per barrel until the end of 2026.
https://www.gelora.co/2026/04/